Pre-tourney Rankings
Sun Belt
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Middle Tennessee 32.6%   28 - 5 19 - 1 28 - 5 19 - 1 +9.8      +3.2 93 +6.7 28 65.0 228 +10.5 46 +12.9 1
150 Arkansas St. 0.0%   18 - 12 12 - 8 18 - 12 12 - 8 +0.8      -2.9 252 +3.7 79 66.3 202 -0.7 183 -0.6 3
183 Western Kentucky 100.0%   16   19 - 15 10 - 10 19 - 15 10 - 10 -0.9      +0.1 172 -1.1 201 66.5 193 -0.2 175 -3.1 6
187 Florida International 0.0%   18 - 14 11 - 9 18 - 14 11 - 9 -1.1      -1.1 201 -0.1 174 74.8 40 +0.2 169 -1.7 5
202 South Alabama 0.0%   16 - 12 14 - 6 16 - 12 14 - 6 -1.8      -3.3 260 +1.4 128 72.9 59 -0.4 178 +2.6 2
223 Arkansas Little Rock 0.0%   16 - 15 11 - 9 16 - 15 11 - 9 -3.5      -3.9 273 +0.5 157 72.5 69 -1.7 194 -1.5 4
233 Louisiana 0.0%   12 - 20 8 - 12 12 - 20 8 - 12 -4.1      -1.4 212 -2.6 246 76.4 28 -5.3 247 -5.3 8
234 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   13 - 18 9 - 11 13 - 18 9 - 11 -4.2      -2.2 233 -2.0 231 66.8 184 -4.8 239 -4.0 7
261 North Texas 0.0%   11 - 19 7 - 13 11 - 19 7 - 13 -5.8      -4.1 276 -1.6 217 69.9 114 -6.6 265 -6.5 9
272 Troy 0.0%   12 - 21 6 - 14 12 - 21 6 - 14 -6.7      -2.5 239 -4.2 287 58.2 327 -7.0 278 -7.8 10
326 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   4 - 23 3 - 17 4 - 23 3 - 17 -12.0      -6.2 308 -5.8 316 66.9 182 -11.9 320 -12.3 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Middle Tennessee 1.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 3.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 6.0 100.0
Florida International 4.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4.0 100.0
Louisiana 8.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7.0 100.0
North Texas 9.0 100.0
Troy 10.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Middle Tennessee 19 - 1 100.0
Arkansas St. 12 - 8 100.0
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 100.0
Florida International 11 - 9 100.0
South Alabama 14 - 6 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 9 100.0
Louisiana 8 - 12 100.0
Florida Atlantic 9 - 11 100.0
North Texas 7 - 13 100.0
Troy 6 - 14 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Middle Tennessee 100.0% 100.0
Arkansas St.
Western Kentucky
Florida International
South Alabama
Arkansas Little Rock
Louisiana
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Troy
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Middle Tennessee 32.6% 0.0% 32.6% 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.3 25.6 2.7 67.5 32.6%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 3.0 97.0
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Middle Tennessee 32.6% 28.5% 19.5% 7.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0% 4.7% 97.7% 3.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 67.5 32.6
1st Round 98.2% 1.2 1.8 79.2 19.0
2nd Round 10.5% 0.1 89.5 10.3 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0